Sunday, December 25, 2011

Special Project: Proposed Topic and Outline

Title: A Framework for Exploiting Mobile Commerce in the Philippines

Objectives:

- To provide a comprehensive understanding of mobile commerce, its drivers and critical uncertainties.
- To identify opportunities for innovation and threats arising from mobile commerce.
- To provide a framework for developing future strategies exploiting mobile commerce.


Outline:
I. Description of Mobile Commerce
- Objective: clarify the concept of mobile commerce
- What is mobile commerce?
- How is it different and similar to e-commerce

II. Description of the Mobile Commerce Technological Ecosystem

- Objective: provide readers an appreciation of the broad, encompassing, pervasive nature of mobile commerce
- Present the web of:
   - Specific technologies implementing mobile commerce (e.g. NFC, mobile-internet based, etc.)
   - Related technologies enabling mobile commerce (e.g. mobile-internet, communication networks)
   - Morphology of different mobile commerce technologies

III. Environmental Analysis - STEEP

- Objective: present a holistic view of the external factors affecting the development, growth, adaption and diffusion of mobile commerce; identify key drivers and critical uncertainties

IV. Key Drivers and Critical Uncertainties

- Objective: discuss key drivers and critical uncertainties identified
- What drives mobile commerce?
   - Mobile internet, mobile-internet capable devices
   - Social network phenomenon
- What are the uncertainties and risks that will prevent/slow down mobile commerce adoption?
   - Mobile commerce trends

V. Opportunities and Threats

- Objective: identify and discuss opportunities and threats due to mobile commerce
- Through value-chain analysis (impact on firm dynamics)
- Through elements of Porter's 5 forces (impact on competitive landscape)

VI. Conclusions and Recommendations



---- early version ----
Topic: Mobile Commerce: Trends, Usage patterns, Opportunities
- analyze mobile commerce, an emerging technology, its drivers and its impact on
firms across industries
- identify opportunities for innovation through mobile commerce; how mobile commerce
can be leveraged to be a key success factor; establish the necessity of mobile commerce in the future 

1. Description of mobile commerce
- to clarify the concept of mobile commerce
- what is mobile commerce?
- similarities with e-commerce
- how is it different from e-commerce?
2. Mobile commerce's technological ecosystem
- to present the broad, encompasing, pervasive nature of mobile commerce
- to present specific technologies (generic vs specific): mobile-internet based, NFC
 - to present related technologies
- morphology of different mobile commerce technologies
- where in the value-chain is it used?
- mobile commerce as innovation

3. Environmental analysis - STEEP (uncertainties, driving factors)

4. Trends: Key driving forces, critical uncertainties
- mobile internet, mobile-internet capable devices
- social network phenomenon
- trends

5. Patterns of usage of mobile commerce (philippines vs the world)
- to analyze patterns of usage and identify opportunities & threats
- strong usage of m-commerce
- weak usage of m-commerce
- strengths and weaknesses
- 5 forces

5. Opportunities & Threats
- identify; how to position to take advantage, mitigate risks
- look at value-chain
- strengths & weaknesses of firms

6. Conclusions & Recommendations

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Innovation Management Concepts


Process Innovation & Service Innovation
Process innovation pertains to an improvement in a firm's value chain (which can be in its primary or supporting activities). For instance, automating one firm's outbound logistics by employing information technologies / systems constitutes a process innovation. This type of improvement can be used to develop a service innovation. For instance, business-model innovation, which is a type of service innovation and involves a substantial change in how a firm earns revenues and profit, can result directly from a firm automating (at least, partially) its outbound logistics by utilizing e-commerce solutions and partnering (or outsourcing) with a logistics firm such as UPS or FedEx.

Product Innovation & Service Innovation
Service is a form of product. Therefore, a product innovation can also be a source of service innovation. For instance, a firm that develops and manufactures a new, high-performance server (hardware) can also offer new services revolving around the product such as renting/selling processing time or computing power or other services (software) residing on the server to different customers.

Radical Service Innovations
The use of information technology has revolutionized both healthcare and education. It has enabled radical service innovations in both fields by allowing totally new ways of delivering services to totally new markets. Examples are virtual universities and remote surgical operations.

First Level vs Second Level Process Innovation
A first level process innovation pertains to easily found solutions to problems in existing processes yielding small improvements while a second level process innovation pertains to adoption of best practices to improve sub-processes. In other words, a second level innovation introduces a more substantial change.

Market-entry Timing Strategy
A market-entry timing strategy is a time-based strategy that dictates whether a firm will enter a market before or after its competitors (i.e. whether it wants to be the first-mover, an early or fast follower, or a late entrant) and what are the necessary steps and measures it needs to perform or enact due to its choice of entry timing. A market-entry timing strategy is just a subset of a firm's deployment strategy which needs to consider not only timing (i.e. when to deploy the product) but also pricing, licensing and marketing.

Deployment Strategy
An effective deployment strategy is required to capture the financial benefits of an innovation because it dictates not just when but how a particular product will be introduced and marketed and to which market. In other words, it considers important financial parameters such as price, target market, projected sales and its objective is precisely to determine the optimal time and price to deploy the product so as to gain the optimal financial results in the long-run and to avoid sub-optimal effects such as cannibalization.

Weak vs Tight Appropriability Regimes
A weak appropriability regime pertains to the condition where an innovator finds it difficult or almost impossible to protect his or her I.P. or technology while a tight appropriability regime pertains to the condition where an innovator funds it relatively easy to protect his I.P. or technology.

Dangers for a First Mover Firm
A first mover firm, with a radical innovation can become the loser in the market if it is unable to 1) protect technologies or I.P. behind its innovation and 2) to take advantage or realize first-mover advantages that will lead to rapid and wide-spread adoption of its innovation. That is, if it is unable to establish brand loyalty and technological leadership, control scarce assets and establish switching costs and "cross the chasm" (i.e. encourage adoption by early majority).

The Curse of Innovation
The "curse of innovation" pertains to the observed (and somewhat perplexing) reluctance of consumers to adopt highly innovative products. This arises because of 1) the difference in reference points between the consumers and producers of innovations and also 2) innovations typically require a behavior change in the consumers (which they resist). Because of their differing reference points, consumers tend to undervalue gains and overvalue loses due to the innovation (in terms of performance or usability) while producers tend to do the opposite. This leads to consumer "irrationality" rejecting innovations that would have made them better off and to developers being unable to anticipate this rejection which in turn increases the probability of market failures.

Ideally, therefore, developers must address both 1) and 2) (of the previous paragraph) by 1) minimizing the degree of behavioral change required and 2) maximizing performance or other gains derived from the innovation (though it is also possible to focus on one like accepting resistance but delivering extreme improvement). Moore's chasm theory provides a consumer-related explanation for market failure of a radical innovation by considering the difference in characteristics among market segments and in particular, between early adopters and early majority (and the difference in how they perceive value and decide to buy). In concrete terms, the early majority are pragmatist and will adopt innovations only after it has proven itself useful for productivity improvement. They want a complete (100%) product that is widely supported (i.e. 3rd party support) and has a large-consumer base (i.e. a de facto standard). While early adopters want uniqueness and elegance (i.e. new functionality, fastest, etc.) in an innovation. It is therefore easy to see why radical innovations are more readily accepted by early adopters but not by the early majority which wants something proven rather than simply being new.

National Innovation System: Narrow vs Broad Definitions
Narrow NIS includes only organizations and institutions directly involved in searching, exploring, generating and using innovations. These includes R&D departments, technological institutes and universities. Broad NIS includes all parts and aspects of the society that affects the searching, exploring, generating and using (as well as learning) of innovations. In other words, it consists of the narrow NIS plus all economic, political and other social institutions such as a nation's financial system, manufacturing system and regulatory institution.

National Innovation System: Actors vs Institutions 
In the context of NIS, players or actors pertain to organizations such as firms, universities, technology organizations, venture capital organizations and public agencies while institutions refer to the sets of common habits, norms, routines, established practices, laws that govern the relations and interactions between the players (i.e. the rules of the game.)

An example of a player in the Philippine NIS is the University of the Philippines. An example of an institution in the Philippine NIS is the new I.P. law concerning technology acquisition patterned after a similar U.S. law. Another example of an institution is the law establishing, defining and governing the operation of the P.S.H.S. system.


Disruptive Innovation
Relative to gasoline / diesel car, the electric car can be considered a disruptive innovation because it threatens to overturn the existing dominant technology (i.e. piston-type gasoline car technologies) and disturb the current market status quo. Moreover, it is not a continuation of the existing dominant technology but a departure or a "quantum leap". It also exhibits other characteristics of disruptive technologies like its current / near-term underperformance compared to the mainstream technology and its confinement to a niche / emerging market (i.e. young, tech-savvy, environmental conscious early adopters).

Examples of Incremental Innovation, Architectural Innovation & Modular Innovation
An example of incremental innovation to piston-type gasoline / diesel car would be the introduction of more fuel efficient piston-type gasoline / diesel engines. An example of architectural innovation would be the introduction of new models that significantly alter the current configuration of existing components in a gasoline / diesel car by applying principles from say aerospace technologies (e.g. Volkswagen). An example of modular innovation would be the use of hybrid engines (wherein the characteristics and underlying technology if a component is significantly altered).

Experimental Development vs New Product Development
Experimental development pertains to the process of establishing the technical and market feasibility of an innovation including the development of a prototype. In other words, at this point the design (specifically, the configuration of components and the form) of the product is still being worked-out and finalized. While the process of new product development encompasses all activities that lead to the development of a new product from idea generation up to commercialization and monitoring. In other words, it includes both experimental development (as explained earlier) and the actual product development where in the final design of the product has already been established and turned over to engineering / manufacturing for initial production and to marketing for formulation of a marketing strategy and later the execution of test marketing.

Product Platform, Product Line & Product Mix
A product platform pertains to the common technological base, encompassing design and components, that is shared by a set of products. A product line pertains to a set of closely related products build on a product platform and released over a period of time. Each product (in the product line) has some characteristics that varies from other products in the product line (e.g. performance, price, etc.) while maintaining other characteristics. A product mix is the set of products of a given firm at a given time which may or may not be from the same product line. Products in a product line can be thought of as having vertical relation while in a product mix, they can be thought of as having a horizontal relationship.

Patenting vs Collaborating
Patenting an invention is not always the best way to protect it because:
  • Patents are expensive to obtain and offer weak protection
  • Forces early disclosure and has a limited period
  • Provides no control on timing of disclosure and cannot be utilized to suit market opportunities
  • Difficult to prove that an end product infringes on a patent

Collaborating with competitors can be a good way of protecting one's profit from an innovation because:
  • Costs and risks are shared
  • Reducing amount or magnitude of assets that need to be committed
  • Skills and resources are also shared
  • Chance to learn from partner
  • Possibility of creating a common standard based on the innovation thereby increasing and prolonging its value
  • Possibility of diffusion may lead to the innovation becoming the dominant design
Appropriability
Appropriability pertains to the extent or degree to which a firm can appropriate the returns from commercialization of its technology as determined by how easily or quickly can the firm's competitors imitate the technology. This is a factor of both the nature of the technology (simple vs complex) and the strength of the firm's technology protection.

Innovation Diffusion vs Protection
Diffusing an innovation can be more advantageous than protecting it as it may increase the rate of adoption of the innovation and increase the possibility that it would become the dominant design (especially if adopted and promoted by multiple firms). Furthermore, the technology might be improved by other firms making it more valuable.

Net Present Value: Benefits & Shortcomings 
The main benefit of NPV is that it allows the comparison of different R&D projects with different durations (i.e. short vs long-term) by considering the time value of money (by using discount rates). Another advantage of NPV is its relative simplicity compared to other quantitative methods of evaluating R&D projects making it a suitable tool for eliminating (those with negative NPVs) inferior projects. Furthermore, it does not only enable comparison among R&D projects but also against other investment opportunities. The main shortcomings of NPV is it requires the stream of revenues and expenditures to be known in advance (for a certain time period) which may or may not be possible at the early stages of the project and that it assumes a constant discount rate over time which may not be the case. Furthermore, it evaluates projects purely on an economic basis and may miss to take into account the value of relationships that a project has with other potential projects in the future or current / existing projects (i.e. synergy).

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Technology Acquisition Concepts


Absorptive Capacity, Dynamic Capability, Improve Design Capability
A firm is said to have absorptive capacity if it can identify, assimilate and apply external knowledge as well as exploit them. In other words, it has the ability to both acquire and integrate knowledge from external sources into its existing capabilities. It is said to have dynamic capability if it is able to acquire technology in an active manner. That is, if it is able to understand, reproduce and modify the design of an external technology (e.g. through reverse engineering) on its own. It is said to have improve design capability, if it can not only reproduce and modify but also enhance / improve the design in terms of performance, architecture or aesthetics.

Technological Catch-up
Technological catch-up is the process of acquiring and accumulating technological capabilities rapidly to levels that enable a firm or country to become a technology leader or major competitor. This implies that a firm or country doing technological catch-up starts from position inferior to the current leaders and desires to reach the technological level of the leader(s) i.e. to be at par with the leader. To do so, a firm or country must posses reproductive capability at the minimum. That is, it must at least have the capability to build a product including the core components on its own. However, to sustain parity with the leader and avoid always being a step-behind (i.e. always on catch-up mode), a firm or country must have innovative capability.

National Power Corporation: Operative Capability or Integrative Capability
Since NPC has to procure an electric power plant from foreign firms every time it needs one and is only able to do minor repairs, it can be said that NPC only has operative capability. In other words, NPC has the ability to assess, select, acquire, implement, operationalize and repair externally acquired technology but it cannot adapt the technology to local conditions nor can it assemble power plants on its own. To be considered as having investment or integrative capability, NPC must be capable of doing the previously mentioned activities. That is, on its own, NPC must be able to build (from externally sourced components i.e. assemble) power plants and be able to adjust / adapt / modify its scale, capacity and peripheral components. To be considered as having reproductive capability, NPC must be able to build or reproduce core components of power plants. This implies the capability to reverse engineer power plant technologies and the capability to improve performance and architecture of power plant technologies.

Technological Learning in Filipino-owned Firms and in the Philippines as a Whole
Technological learning of most Filipino-owned firms can be characterized as "passive" because they mostly rely on so-called "learning-by-doing" and lacks mechanisms or systems that enable or promote active learning (e.g. learning-by-searching). That is, in most Filipino firms, learning arises passively (no active/systematic effort from the firm) as a matter of course of doing the job (or doing certain activities relating to the production of a particular product). They do not invest on active learning nor spend effort to understand or reverse engineer technologies underlying the products or processes they are working on. That is, their understanding / knowledge is limited to what is directly given to them (such as operating equipments and explicitly licensed technologies).

The national technological learning of the Philippines can be considered "FDI-dependent" due to its over-reliance on FDIs in building its technological capability. That is, the government does not have a clear plan or strategy for active technological capability building. Rather, it relies on technological diffusion from MNCs setting-up facilities in the country. Developing nations cannot rely on FDIs to achieve technological catch-up since technology diffusion that arises from FDI is mostly limited to "operational technologies" or knowledge if the host country does not have the absorptive capacity to acquire technology beyond that. Furthermore, the decision on what types of technologies will be involved in FDIs is dependent on the MNCs perception of the country's technology capacity. That is, an MNC will not establish a research and development facility in a country where it does not see as possessing sufficient levels of the appropriate manpower (i.e. scientists / engineers).

Change Management: Technocentric Perspective vs System Design Perspective
Change management is the task of managing change. It is a systematic approach to ensuring an orderly transition from an initial state where a problem or possible improvement exists to a final state where the problem has been solved or the improvement has been implemented. That is, the purpose of change management is to ensure that the process from getting from the initial to the final state proceeds in a planned and orderly fashion.

The perspective that lacks change management is the technocentric perspective to technology implementation as it focuses solely on the technical or technological aspects (ignoring social considerations). The perspective that best reflects the essence of change management is the system design perspective because it considers and integrates both technical and social concerns into a total system view. That is, it seeks to understand the innovation, in the context of the firms social and technical systems and plan the implementation taking into account technical, organizational and social issues.


Technological Catch-up & Learning: South Korea vs Taiwan
A. In terms of vehicles of development, South Korea relied on large family-owned conglomerates called chaebols for catch-up and technological learning by (the state) directing these firms to go into strategic industries (mostly, heavy industries) while Taiwan relied on SMEs, local business groups and public enterprises.

B. South Korea tried to minimize FDI and utilized other forms of technology transfer (like licensing, joint ventures, reverse engineering) to develop technological capabilities of firms. On the other hand, Taiwan (though initially tried to restrict FDI as well) encourage FDI and attracted MNCs to compensate for lack of big firms.

C. For financing, South Korea depended heavily on foreign debts and nationalized commercial banks. Taiwan, on the other hand, did not need as much external funding due to its alliances with MNCs and the dominance of SMEs.

D. South Korea pursued a nationalistic substituting strategy and orchestrated the growth of the chaebols with its industrial policy of targeting strategic industries for import substitution and export promotion. The government also utilized a "carrot-and-stick" policy to influence the direction of the chaebols. In other words, the government took the role a strong developmental state. Taiwan adopted a complementing strategy to attract MNCs by providing them with complementary assets such as SME supplier clusters, infrastructure, fiscal incentives and human capital. Taiwan also employed an "orderly spin-off strategy" where in public research institutes created spin-offs to commercialize and diffuse developed technologies.
(Additional note: ROK: reverse product cycle, Taiwan: OEM-ODM-OBM)

Technological Capability Building: Washington Consensus Vs Beijing-Seoul-Tokyo Consensus 
The Washington Consensus does not have policy prescriptions that directly address technological capability-building because it does not see economic development as a capability-building process. On the other hand, majority of the BeST policy prescriptions are directed toward capability building, technological capability-building in particular, because it recognizes the importance of capability building to economic development.

In terms of industrial policy, the Washington Consensus recommends deregularization, trade-liberalization, privatization and elimination of barriers to FDI. The fundamental philosophy behind these is that economic development proceeds from a free and open market and that the state should not intervene on the market. On the other hand, the BeST Consensus recommends targeting import-substituting technologies and export-based engagement with global economy. It also emphasizes the role of the state, through a pilot development policy agency, in directing and coordinating efforts towards capability building.

The Washington Consensus works for developed economies which already posses the necessary technological capabilities but not for countries like the Philippines which are trying to catch-up since it lacks a  framework for technological-capability building and does not recognize that technology isn't free and that technological learning and capability building are difficult and complex processes that require conscious, coordinated and directed effort (this is because the WTC does not even recognize the role of technological capability building in economic development).

Developmental State vs Regulatory State
A developmental state is a "plan-rational" state because the government gives greatest precedence to economic planning and industrial policy; that is, the government takes an active role in driving development. In contrast, a regulatory state is a "market-rational" state because the government avoids industrial policy or any state intervention in the market. In other words, the government takes on a passive role and acts merely as a referee to keep a free and open market.

Industrial Policy: Old vs New
The old industrial policy seeks to develop selected strategic sectors through a combination of tariff protection, direct subsidies and prohibition on certain kinds of technology transfer. The new industrial policy focuses on promoting entrepreneurship and innovation through mixed, market-based model with the government and private sector working closely together. In short, in the old industrial policy, the state directly & strongly intervenes to influence market forces (i.e. it is a primary agent), while in the new, the state takes the role of a facilitator.

The reasons for supporting the adoption of the old industrial policy for the Philippines are:
  • Many countries that have successfully catched-up like Korea and Japan adopted this policy. This is because catch-up requires the government to take an active role in identifying strategic sectors and stimulating growth in these sectors.
  • With a weak, uncompetitive private sector, the government cannot rely on it to be the primary agent of change. It, first, needs to be nurtured and developed before it can take on that role. For the meantime, there should be a central agency orchestrating its direction.

The reason against it are:
  • Protectionism leads to the protected sector to be even more uncompetitive.
  • Globalization and the increasing interconnectedness of international production networks make it difficult for a protected sector to become a player
  • The rate of technological change requires countries to have an open market to attract foreign firms or MNCs that aid in diffusing and transferring technologies.

Technological Catch-up: A Model for the Philippines
The Chinese model, which itself is a combination of the Korean and Taiwanese models, is a suitable model for the Philippines. Like China, the Philippines needs to identify strategic industrial sectors and encourage both large firms and SMEs to go into those sectors through fiscal incentives and by creating technology parks that will support the development of these sectors. There is also a need to institutionalize the creation of spin-offs from academic and research institutions. By encouraging a dynamic relationship between private firms and research institutions, the Philippines will be able to build up its absorptive capacity. With technology and ecoparks, it can build supplier networks and attract MNCs and in the process facilitate technology diffusion and acquisition.

Considering the emergence of the digital revolution and the strengths and weaknesses of the Philippines in the I.T. sector, I believe informationalization is a viable approach for the Philippines. We are already a recognized global player in BPO and I believe we should build on this as we move up in the I.T. value-chain. Having said this, there are particular elements in the cluster-based industrialization approach that the Philippines can implement. In particular, the creation of geographically concentrated information technology related firms and the creation of supplier-networks (i.e. knowledge-suppliers.)
(Comment: But IT alone cannot address the food needs, energy needs, etc. of the country)

Technology Management Concepts


Basic Research
The objective of basic research is to acquire new knowledge of the underlying foundation of phenomena and observable facts without any application in mind. It is usually undertaken by academic institutions and its output (e.g. discoveries, new understanding, findings, theories) are published in scientific journals. In short, a document output of basic research is a scientific paper or publication.

Invention
Invention is the creative process of manipulating nature in logical ways to accomplish a human purpose. In other words, it is the process of coming up / conceiving new technologies. A typical document output of invention is the invention log.

Technology Incubation
The objective of technology incubation is to reduce a new technology to practice which implies the making, improving, testing & marketing of prototypes or demonstrations to establish both technical and commercial feasibility. A typical document output of technology incubation is a business plan.

Vertical Technology Transfer
The objective of vertical technology transfer is to transfer / convey / transplant an embryonic technology from the inventor (e.g. individual, institutional or even a department within the same group / organization such as R&D) to an organization that can either commercialize it (as a new product or process) or make it a publicly available for the practical solution of a problem in society. A typical document output of vertical technology transfer is a license agreement.

Horizontal Technology Transfer
The objective of horizontal technology transfer is to transfer commercialized or operational technology from one organization to another in a different social-economic context. A typical document output of horizontal technology transfer is a contract or a licensing agreement.

Firm-level Value-Chain
Michael Porter's value-chain model of the firm provides a view of the firm in terms of its value activities, the relationships and interdependence of these value activities and how the contribute value to the firm's products and thus enabling the firm to make a profit (since value > cost i.e. there is a margin).

Technology Strategy & Value-Chain
The firm-level technology strategy is the systematic way by which a firm takes advantage of technology or technological resources to improve its value activities. The firm-level technology strategy permeates across the different value activities. It dictates what technologies to utilize in the firm's supporting activities (like H.R., procurement, etc.) and how to utilize these technologies in the firm's primary activities (like logistics, operations, sales, etc.) It includes decisions on technology selection, acquisition, development and protection.

Value-Chain, Product Innovation & Process Innovation
Changes in the value chain result in changes in the ways in which products are created and delivered i.e. changes in the firm's process (of creating and delivering the product). Certain changes that streamlines or improve the value chain (either by improving efficiency within a particular value activity or by improving efficiency in the links between value activities) are process innovations. For example, a firm that introduces online tracking of supplies, inventories and deliveries into its logistics and operations value activities has introduced a process innovation.

Value-Chain & Horizontal Technology Transfer
Changes in the firm's value chain activities can result to horizontal technology transfer. For instance, a firm that decides to outsource a primary activity like service or manufacturing or a part of a support activity like procurement to another organization may need to convey certain technologies to that organization. Similarly, the recipient organization may also need to convey certain technologies to the outsourcing organization in order to effectively accomplish the agreed upon tasks.

Technology Management & Technology Lifecycle (S-Curve)
A. The major task of technology management during the new invention period is technology development which includes research and establishing ways and means that will support and facilitate the creation of advances and breakthroughs. It also includes technology incubation, plus technology commercialization.

B. The major task of technology management during rapid growth but before establishing a dominant design is product innovation. That is, improving the product and the technology/design behind the product with the goal of establishing the dominant design. It also includes IP & Technology Protection.

C. The major task of technology management during rapid growth after establishing the dominant design is process innovation. That is, developing or acquiring technologies that will improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of developing / manufacturing the product.

D. The major task of technology management during the maturity period is still process innovation but more on streamlining business / value activities to further reduce cost and increase market share.

E. The major task technology management during aging period is to assess threats (from competing technologies) and seek opportunities to development new technologies to replace the aging technology. It includes environmental scanning, technology foresighting and new research to acquire new emerging technology.

Technology Transfer & Original Equipment Manufacturing
The described OEM arrangement is a horizontal technology transfer because it is a transfer of commercialized technology to another firm in a different socio-economic context. The transferor plays the active role since it drives the transfer by proving training to the other firm's personnel. It is not market-mediated since it is only a contract between two parties and does not involve or undergo public bidding. Furthermore, the market does not influence the technology transfer.

The advantages of an OEM arrangement for the transferor are cost-saving and potential penetration of a new market. The risks are technology or IP leakage and weaker control over quality.

OEM provides an opportunity to the transferee because it enables them to gain new knowledge, technology, experience and track-record.


Technology Audit
The objectives of technology audit are:
a. evaluate a firm's technological capacity
b. evaluate the strength and weaknesses of its technological assets and processes
c. evaluate a firm's position in technology relative to its competitors and the state-of-the-art
d. formulate an action plan based on the above

Technology Benchmarking
The objectives of technology benchmarking are:
a. identify benchmarks in the form of best practices and performance measures within the firm, industry, nation or the world (depending on the chosen scope)
b. identify and understand enablers i.e. means by which best practices or exceptional performance is attained

Technology Forecasting
The objectives of technology forecasting are:
a. anticipate the future state and evolution of a particular technology (whether a specific technical approach or a generic technology); this includes a clear description of the expected functional capability
b. define the timeframe of the forecasted evolution (or timeframe within which the forecast is to be realized)
c. come-up with the likelihood or probability of achieving / realizing the forecast

Technology Foresight
The objectives of technology foresight are:
a. systematically look into the longer-term future of science and technology and its impact on the economy, the environment and society as a whole
b. identify emerging generic technologies and strategic areas of research
c. develop strategies and policies to actively bring about or influence the realization of those technologies and the realization of the desired future as a whole

Technology Roadmapping
The objectives of technology roadmapping are:
a. identify future products, services and technology needs
b. identify critical requirements, timeframes, and technology "paths" for the above
c. develop a plan on how to meet those needs and develop those products and services using or starting from what the firm currently has (i.e. firm's resources)

Competitive Strategy, Competitive Advantage & Core Competencies
A company's competitive strategy defines how the company intends to compete in a particular business. It depends heavily on the company's capabilities, strengths and weaknesses and those of its competition. Therefore, to be able to implement its competitive strategy and maintain competitiveness (i.e. sustain its competitive advantage) is to develop a core competence i.e. a set of capabilities coordinated in a way that is difficult for competitors to imitate. In short, the goal of a firm's competitive strategy is to gain and sustain competitive advantage and this can be done by developing core competencies.

Technology Strategy & Competitive Advantage
Technology strategy supports competitive strategy in that it dictates one of the ways by which a firm can gain / create competitive advantage. Competitive advantage can be created by performing specific value chain activities better or differently through the use of technology. Selecting and acquiring (or developing) the technology is dictated by a firm's technology strategy.

Corporate Strategy vs Business Strategy
Corporate strategy defines the industries or businesses a corporation intends to be in and how the corporation attempts to create balance and synergy among them. For instance, the Ayala Group of Companies' presence and interests in telecoms, banking and real estate reflect its corporate strategy of diversification. On the other hand, business strategy defines how a firm intends to compete in a particular business. For instance, the Gokongwei Group of Companies decided to compete in the telecoms industry (particularly, mobile / cellular communications) through Sun Cellular (Digitel) using a low-cost business strategy.

Research & Development, Competitive Advantage
Despite the availability of cheaper and faster alternatives for technology acquisition, firms seeking to be globally competitive still invest huge sums of money in R&D because it provides (if successful) long-term competitive advantage that is not easily eroded. By developing technologies internally, firms not only produce technologies they own and control but also develop or build the firm's technological capacity, knowledge and skills embodied by its researchers, scientists and engineers. By having technologies they own and control and technological capacity, firms position themselves better to develop unique, hard-to-imitate products that the market needs / wants.

Reverse Engineering, First Movers & Late Entrants
Reverse engineering is the process of acquiring technology through examining, disassembling and subjecting a particular product and its components to tests and analyses with the aim of understanding how it works and how it is designed. Through reverse engineering, a firm can implement a fast follower strategy since it allows the firm to acquire the technology faster (as opposed to developing it independently) and enables the firm to modify and build on the technology such that the firm is able to develop a new and better product at a lower cost. With no complementary assets and faced with a weak appropriability regime, it is very risky for a firm to pursue a first mover strategy since it is going to be easy for competitors especially the market-leaders (or for late-entrants in general) to steal the market by introducing a similar but lower-cost product. Late entrants can afford to do this because they do not have the cost related to introducing the product. Furthermore, they can reverse engineer the first-mover's product and come-up with a better one, effectively leapfrogging the first mover.

Global Value Chain vs Global Production Network
A Global Value Chain (GVC) is a sequence of value-creating activities across firms and borders resulting to the production of goods and services (i.e. products). A Global Production Network (GPN) pertains to a flagship firm and its network of suppliers. In short, a GVC is associated to a specific product while a GPN is associated to a specific flagship firm. Furthermore, A GVC can utilize various GPNs.

Various modes of international technology transfers influence / dictate the nature of the relationship and interactions among the different activities (and the firms doing them) within a GVC and the nature of interactions and relationships among elements of a GPN.

National Innovation System: Narrow vs Broad Definition
The narrow definition of NIS is limited to the agents directly involved in the generation and use of innovation in a national economy. While the broad definition includes the components of the narrow NIS plus agents not directly involved in the generation and use of innovation but affects agents that are. Examples are financial institutions, manufacturing system and regulatory institutions.

National Innovation System: Actors vs Institutions
Players / actors in NIS are the nodes / components of the network or "web". They pertain to organizations, firms, universities, etc. Institutions in NIS pertain to the "rules of the game" i.e. the set of norms, habits, rules, laws and practices that govern or influence how the players interact or relate to each other.


Thursday, December 8, 2011

Some Critical Uncertainties in the Development of an EWS


4.0 Identification of Critical Uncertainties
  • Quality of Educational System

The quality of a community’s educational system is fundamental to its capacity to produce responsible and productive community members that recognize the value of technology, respect intellectual property and contribute to community building. It is within this context that the development of an integrated community-based early warning system can be reasonably expected.  However, the state of NCR’s educational system (and the Philippines as a whole) and likelihood of significant improvements in the next 5 years remain uncertain.
  • Level of Scientific And Engineering Knowledge

The level of scientific and engineering knowledge is a prime determinant of a community’s capacity to absorb, adapt and utilize existing technologies and develop new technologies.  Since an effective community-based early warning system is expected to be technology-intensive, a community’s ability to develop, utilize and maintain such a system is highly dependent on its level of scientific and engineering knowledge as embodied by its scientists and engineers. Whether or not NCR will have the required critical mass of scientists and engineers to develop and sustain an integrated community-based early warning system is uncertain.
  • Rate of Scientific Breakthroughs

Scientific breakthroughs are highly uncertain events. Yet they are of critical importance to the emergence, development and obsolescence of technologies. Thus, scientific breakthroughs, both of local or foreign-origin, are expected to influence the development or non-development of an integrated community-based early warning system for NCR in the next 5 years.
  • Level of Government Support

As with any technology-intensive system, the development of an early warning system, especially within such a relatively short period of time, is expected to require a significant initial capital outlay. Furthermore, the legislation and effective enforcement of a comprehensive set of laws and policies is also expected to be necessary for the development of an integrated community-based early warning system. Thus, the development of such a system is also dependent on financial, legislative and implementation support from the government. The level of government support that can be expected is uncertain.



6.0 Ranking of Variables to Establish Key Driving Forces
The table below shows the ranking of the identified key variables and critical uncertainties in terms of their uncertainty and importance to the focal issue.
Importance
Uncertainty
Variables
New EWS technologies
9
9
Existing EWS technologies
9
1
Development of local IP laws, policies and treaties
7
2
Development of global IP laws, policies and treaties
6
3
Enforcement and regulation of local IP laws, policies and treaties
8
4
Enforcement and regulation of global IP laws, policies and treaties
8
4
Local and global IP awareness and adaptation
5
5
Uncertainties
Quality of educational system
7
8
Level of government support
10
7
Rate of scientific breakthroughs
10
10
Level of scientific and engineering knowledge
10
8


The scatter plot below shows the ranking in graphical form.

Monorail Technology in the Digital Economy


  1. The Monorail Technology
A monorail is a rail-based transport system that is based on a single-rail i.e. the monorail vehicle runs and is supported and guided solely by a single rail. It is usually elevated, electric-powered and can either be manned or unmanned. Due to its small footprint and grade-separated system, it is suitable for urban environment where space is limited and disruption to the existing transportation infrastructure needs to be minimized. It is said to be cheaper to build compared to alternative elevated rail systems and is also said to be more aesthetically pleasing.
The Department of Science and Technology (DOST) under the administration of Pres. Aquino has identified building an unmanned, electric-powered monorail system, initially in the University of the Philippines and later in the Metro Manila, as one of its priority projects.

  1. Appropriate Foresight Techniques
If ask to recommend foresight techniques to assess and plan the monorail project, I would recommend scenario planning and technology roadmapping. Developing and introducing a transportation system technology in a highly urbanized community such as Metro Manila requires thorough and long-term planning and carries with it various complex issues that need to be systematically studied and analyzed. Together, scenario planning and technology roadmapping will aid DOST in accomplishing this.
In particular, scenario planning will enable DOST to identify key variables, critical uncertainties and driving forces that are paramount to the success or failure of the project, not only technologically but also in other socio-economic dimensions. It will allow DOST to assess and prepare for alternative scenarios and take the necessary actions to drive the situation as it unfolds as close to the ideal scenario as possible. It will also aid DOST in anticipating the impact of the project on the community and the impact of the community (i.e. the external environment) on the project in a more holistic manner.
On the other hand, technology roadmapping will help DOST identify key technological requirements (i.e. specific functional capabilities and performance) that need to be meet in order for the project to succeed. As such, it will enable DOST to plan the development of a series of specific technologies during specific times such that the identified requirements are meet as they materialized along the way. Furthermore, with technology roadmapping, DOST can extend its vision beyond the implementation of a monorail system and identify other related technologies that need to be developed to complement the monorail technology and push technological development further.

  1. Monorail’s Relation to the Digital Economy
An unmanned monorail system, by virtue of its being controlled by a network of computers and by Brian Arthur’s definition (of the digital economy), is already a part of the digital economy. But that is just the tip of the iceberg. Other aspects of the monorail system can make it even more integrated into the digital economy. For instance, imagine if the network of computers controlling the monorail system is connected to an even larger network of computers (e.g. the internet). If that where the case, it would open up a lot more opportunities for technology-driven products and services. A passenger that intends to ride the monorail can know in real time where the monorail vehicle currently is and when it is expected to arrive at the station. The passenger can then use mobile commerce technology in his or her mobile phone to acquire and pay his or her virtual or electronic ticket without the inconvenience of having to wait in long, endless queues. While in transit, a passenger can be made aware of interesting sites such as restaurant’s, shopping malls, retail stores and tourist attractions surrounding the passenger’s current location. With the aid of social networking, targeted information based on the passenger’s preferences can be sent to an application running on his mobile phone or even to an electronic display within the monorail itself (while the passenger is blissfully unaware of all the complex operations simultaneous going on behind the scene - in the digital economy). With seamless integration, the possibilities are endless.

  1. Strategic Transformations
As hinted in the previous section, integrating the monorail system with the digital economy opens up a host of opportunities that when exploited will enable us to maximize the benefits we can derived from the technology. To do so, however, requires strategic transformation on how we currently do things – in particular, how we conduct technology planning. To recognize existing opportunities, create new ones and anticipate emerging and future needs, it is necessary to do strategic technology planning systematically.
It also goes without saying that these opportunities come with risks (i.e. security risks, privacy risks, etc.) which makes strategic technology planning all the more critical to our growth and success as a nation.