Some Critical Uncertainties in the Development of an EWS

4.0 Identification of Critical Uncertainties

• Quality of Educational System

The quality of a community’s educational system is fundamental to its capacity to produce responsible and productive community members that recognize the value of technology, respect intellectual property and contribute to community building. It is within this context that the development of an integrated community-based early warning system can be reasonably expected.  However, the state of NCR’s educational system (and the Philippines as a whole) and likelihood of significant improvements in the next 5 years remain uncertain.

• Level of Scientific And Engineering Knowledge

The level of scientific and engineering knowledge is a prime determinant of a community’s capacity to absorb, adapt and utilize existing technologies and develop new technologies.  Since an effective community-based early warning system is expected to be technology-intensive, a community’s ability to develop, utilize and maintain such a system is highly dependent on its level of scientific and engineering knowledge as embodied by its scientists and engineers. Whether or not NCR will have the required critical mass of scientists and engineers to develop and sustain an integrated community-based early warning system is uncertain.

• Rate of Scientific Breakthroughs

Scientific breakthroughs are highly uncertain events. Yet they are of critical importance to the emergence, development and obsolescence of technologies. Thus, scientific breakthroughs, both of local or foreign-origin, are expected to influence the development or non-development of an integrated community-based early warning system for NCR in the next 5 years.

• Level of Government Support

As with any technology-intensive system, the development of an early warning system, especially within such a relatively short period of time, is expected to require a significant initial capital outlay. Furthermore, the legislation and effective enforcement of a comprehensive set of laws and policies is also expected to be necessary for the development of an integrated community-based early warning system. Thus, the development of such a system is also dependent on financial, legislative and implementation support from the government. The level of government support that can be expected is uncertain.

6.0 Ranking of Variables to Establish Key Driving Forces

The table below shows the ranking of the identified key variables and critical uncertainties in terms of their uncertainty and importance to the focal issue.

	Importance	Uncertainty
Variables
New EWS technologies	9	9
Existing EWS technologies	9	1
Development of local IP laws, policies and treaties	7	2
Development of global IP laws, policies and treaties	6	3
Enforcement and regulation of local IP laws, policies and treaties	8	4
Enforcement and regulation of global IP laws, policies and treaties	8	4
Local and global IP awareness and adaptation	5	5
Uncertainties
Quality of educational system	7	8
Level of government support	10	7
Rate of scientific breakthroughs	10	10
Level of scientific and engineering knowledge	10	8

The scatter plot below shows the ranking in graphical form.